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Absorption rate as a system risk measurement tool: evidence from the Viet Nam stock market

Ngo Van Thu 1, *
  1. National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Correspondence to: Ngo Van Thu, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam. Email: [email protected].
Volume & Issue: Vol. 3 No. 1 (2019) | Page No.: 13-27 | DOI: 10.32508/stdjelm.v3i1.536
Published: 2019-05-03

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This article is published with open access by Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0) which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited. 

Abstract

System risk is one of the problems concerned by many stock market researchers. Many different indicators have been used: the average price index Passcher, Laspeyres or Fisher. These indicators reflect the average price of stocks or a basket of representative stocks in the m arket. The models predicting the prices of these indexes are the measure of market risk. Recently, especially after the major financial crises, the plunge of the stock market indexes has been s een. There are two issues here: Firstly, whether a market index fully reflects systemic r isk. Secondly, any state of market risk implicit breakdowns. Mark Kritzman et al., 2010 proposed index of Absorption Rate as a system risk measurement tool. Research results of the authors and some other studies show that: 1. The sharp decline of the US stock market against the soaring rate of absorption; 2. Stocks devalued significantly after the rate of absorption increased and then p lummeted; 3 . Absorption rate is a leading indicator of the US housing market bubble; 4. Increased absorption rate has a system of market turmoil; 5. The time of major financial crisis coincided with a large change of this rate; 6. Absorption rate contains a large proportion of information about structural models and complex calculations of financial s pread. This article introduces and tests the use of absorption rate to analyze the volatility of the Vietnam stock market. The analysis will focus on a number of periods with different market fluctuations. Experiment uses absorption rate index for a pricing model.

 

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